When Niche Market is the Wrong Advice

Andrew Goodman wrote a delightfully good column over at SEL about how and when going niche is wrong. He noted that the advice to go niche typically comes from niche market thought leaders and people selling information products who tend to think everyone else is just like them.

The reason people push the niche idea are:

  • it is easy advice to give

  • overestimating the value of our own experience
  • the web has many self-reinforcing effects that favor market leaders
  • it is hard to conquire a big field until you have proven success and gained confidence from conquering a smaller niche
  • it doesn't take much to get past self sustaining if you focus on something you are passionate about
  • it is harder to get burned out working on something you are passionate about

It is a mistake I have made many times, but it is easy to speak of your own experiences as truth, especially if you are expected to write nearly every day. Focusing too tightly on a niche for an extended period of time makes it easy to become inauthentic, inaccurate, boring, and/or pessimistic. Those are obvious to anyone who reads frequently, and they are counter to what allows companies to expand:

We can certainly see how small to midsized retailers—online and off—who undergo recognizable and surprising spurts of growth, seem to have something in common beyond the executional wisdom and recruiting skills of the larger enterprises that Collins tracks in Good to Great. That intangible seems to be: contagious excitement.

The market for something to believe in is infinite.

If you are making 50 websites it is likely that you will be more successful if you focus on one or two of them before building out all the others, such that you incorporate learning from your first few sites into your later sites. Why repeat all the mistakes? In the same sense, it helps to conquer one market position before going too broad. When I started on the web I wanted to know a lot more about search than I could have profitably done, especially since the market already had clear market leaders with momentum, social relationships, media relationships, strong brand, capital, and knowledge advantages over me.

After I niched down to SEO and built a brand I was able to create numerous revenue streams (consulting sales, ebook sales, direct ad sales, contextual ad sales, affiliate commissions, link sales, referral commissions, speaking engagements, etc). It is also easy to further leverage my knowledge gained building this site to provide more revenue streams away from this site. I have a network idea I want to launch soon, but it still needs some work.

I have long been a fan of parallel markets after attaining self reinforcing authority status in a core market.

Google Ringtone Search (Beta)... the Utility of Search & the Value of Relationships vs Data

Google recently announced they are offering an ad free search service to small businesses for as little as $100 a year. They are also rumored to be working on creating a mobile search offering to search for ringtones, cell phone games, and other high margin cell phone services:

With the new system, users would search for a piece of content -- such as ringtones -- and would get back a list of companies that provide it, with links letting them easily purchase the material. Eventually, Google would charge companies for high placement in the search results, much as it does with "sponsored links" on Web search, the people familiar with the company's plans said.

If this proves effective, why wouldn't Google create search services for real estate and student loans? Off the start they likely wouldn't be any dirtier than those markets already are.

The local sites (or other niche sites) that die are the ones that don't have a supportive community...the ones that can roughly be described as data. But as you move your site away from data toward community building and user experience you increase its marketability, profitability, and longevity.

John Scott recently said

when the Internet becomes a community more than a marketplace, the community oriented merchants have the advantage.

Most general music lyric sites will lose over 90% of their traffic and value in the next 2 years. Niche value add sites like SongMeanings.net will increase in value.

Some newspapers are fighting off their own irrelevancy by publishing more ads, and becoming more irrelevant. The reason WSJ.com is worth $5 billion is because it will be one of the last newspapers surviving after many competitors are marginalized. Its brand and business relationships make it unique.

The next step for search is moving away from age and citation based trust toward user satisfaction based rating. In a recent interview Jakob Nielson said:

Of course, the big thing that has happened in the last 10 years was a change from an information retrieval oriented relevance ranking to being more of a popularity relevance ranking. And I think we can see a change maybe being a more of a usefulness relevance ranking. I think there is a tendency now for a lot of not very useful results to be dredged up that happen to be very popular, like Wikipedia and various blogs. They’re not going to be very useful or substantial to people who are trying to solve problems. So I think that with counting links and all of that, there may be a change and we may go into a more behavioral judgment as to which sites actually solve people’s problems, and they will tend to be more highly ranked.

Part of that will include collecting user feedback and personalizing results. For the commercial parts of the web, much of this will be done by search engines pushing more aggressive ad units (while using non-ads to test how far they can go), licensing content from premium publishers, and making more transactions direct to funnel traffic internally while minimizing the downside of bait and switch marketing. If Google controls the transaction they know the lead value AND the customer satisfaction stats. If something that was once good becomes spam Google controls distribution and monetization, and can kill it without a second thought.

If you are in a market that is likely to get commoditized what does your site do that makes it more than just data?

Compete.com Search Analytics is Amazing

I recently got a beta account to the upcoming Compete.com Search Analytics tool. I am not sure of their pricing yet, but Jay Meattle, from Compete.com, told me "the price points will be extremely attractive to small business owners."

You can get leading category based keywords, top competitors for a given keyword (exact or broad match), compare competing sites head to head on keywords, and get the breakdown of traffic sent to any website.

How Accurate is Compete.com?

Their model of data collection is going to make their data more accurate for frequent search terms and larger sites, but I tested their keyword data against some of my smaller sites and it was surprisingly accurate.

How to Clone Smaller Competitors

This is yet another way authority sites will pick off smaller competing sites. It is a simple process. If your site is one of the most authoritative sites in your space you can clean up.

  • Use Google's site targeting ads stats to check what sites are running AdSense and getting a lot of traffic (you don't even need to buy ads on them to do this)

  • Go to Compete.com to get the top keyword phrases competing sites rank for and create content targeting the same keywords. You can also run the keywords through Google's Traffic Estimator to sort the keywords by Google's value estimates.
  • Beyond that, you can run Google's site targeted ads or general contextual AdSense placement reports to find out what pages are the most popular on competing sites, and then create content covering the same topics.

Lowbrow webmasters are fast becoming the outsourced market research department for bigger, more technologically advanced, and cash flush companies.

The Effect of Better Competitive Data

All of these analytic services are going to increase the value of domain authority (since it can be easily leveraged for greater profit) and force webmasters to move themselves up the value chain (since models like AdSense give away too much competitive data, especially when combined with Compete.com).

Other Ways to Use Compete.com

  • Compete can be used to see how strong a brand is in its field. The top keyword in the credit card category is Capital One. Both www.capitalone.com and capitalone.com are also in the top 5 keywords. They are obviously a leader in that space. You can also see what percent of a website's traffic originates from its brand related keywords.

  • You can search for a broad match phrase to see how established your site is inside a vertical, how consolidated a vertical is, and how much potential upside you have by increasing your share of search traffic.
  • Compete can also show you the if a competing site is heavily reliant on a few strong keywords or if their traffic distribution is wider. This can be used to see sites worth investing in (especially if you understand search relevancy algorithms) or sites which have a lot of risk and are worth avoiding.

Cory Doctorow Speech at Google

Cory Doctorow spoke at Google a few months ago. His speech covers IP protection, copyright law, DRM, and international trade laws. It is well worth a listen for any web entrepreneur, especially those considering getting published.

Speaking at the Domain Roundtable

Jay Westerdal recently invited me to speak at the Domain Roundtable, a domaining conference held in Seattle from August 13th through 15th.

If you would like to attend here is a code for $100 off attending: domainseo. That is not an affiliate code, just a coupon code.

Would You Trust a Business Domain Registered via Proxy?

Someone recently left a comment on my blog promoting a new keyword research tool that is registered via proxy. The competitive analysis keyword research tool has been marketed heavily via comment spam, and currently shows itself as bidding on 0 keywords, per its own competitive measures. The site gives no data about who owns it. Could it appear any less legitimate? How do marketers create market research tools espousing the value of something they are not doing themselves, then market it via blog comment spam? It isn't hard to send an email or buy a review. If their service is worth $90 a month (their current price) their marketing budget should include some money for paid search and public relations. They could at least have a blog comparing seasonal data and data from different companies the way Hitwise does.

The easiest way to show the value of your offering is to eat your own dog food. That is why ReviewMe bought a bunch of its own ads to help the site go viral at launch. There are so many ways to market ad networks or competitive research tools that there is no point creating one if the marketing strategy starts with the likes of blog comment spam and/or cold calling.

Comparing the ROI of Online vs Offline Investments

I am sure I have made similar posts before, but I live in an 8 unit townhome, and just down the street they are hauling away part of a mountain to make room for another one of these. Each of the 8 units has a rent of $2100 a month, which comes to a total of $16,800 a month.

Their costs include digging up the mountain, hauling away the dirt, permits and licensing fees, property taxes, cleaning, land, raw building materials, construction, interest on a loan, etc. By the time they are done I am sure they will have spent at least $5,000,000 to create a small revenue stream. A website I started a year ago took about $50,000 to develop, and already makes more than that building will. The virtual real estate investment required no loans, and the ROI is over 100x greater. If I build a strong enough brand my income stream will grow much faster than inflation and be nearly as stable as the real estate, while owning a more liquid asset with lower fixed costs. If you are aggressive enough, you can scale an affiliate site to a billion dollars.

The best investments you can make are in your own education and projects. As time passes the web will be more like the offline world and that 100x greater ROI will start heading closer and closer to 1. The only ways to prevent that from happening are to

  • keep testing and learning

  • heavily reinvesting in growth and brand building
  • be willing to fail and move on to better markets
  • use technology to automate
  • build a following and create social relationships with like-minded people
  • leverage your current assets to optimize and promote future business

I hope they have fun tearing down the mountain. I am off to get a few more links. ;)

How to: Move a Website...Should You Fear 301 Redirects Hurting Your Rankings?

SEO Question: I am considering moving my site to another domain name. Do I have anything to fear in moving it? What is the proper way to move a website to a new URL?

Answer: The best way to permanently move a site is to 301 redirect it. If you have a small site you will likely see few small changes with your rankings. The bigger your site is the longer it takes to move and the more drastically the shakeup will be.

301 Redirecting a Small Site Versus a Large Site

When I redirected my article about Search Engine History the pickup was almost immediate because it was only moving one page to another one page site. My friend Daniel recently 301 redirected the old scholarship site to College Scholarships.org. It was a good test to see how the various search engines would react to moving a 1,000+ page website. The site move started on May 30th. By June 3rd Google indexed 385 pages, and on June 6th Google indexed 509 pages. The old URLs ranked until the associated new ones took their place in the index.

When moving a large site make sure to use a find and replace feature to change internal links to point at the new site location. You can do so inside of HTML editing software like Dreamweaver or using freeware like ReplaceEm. Rebranding a site is also a good time to fix broken links. You can find broken links using Xenu.

Why Our Search Traffic is Still Down

Traffic volumes are still noticeably down from their all time highs, but that is largely a function of 4 factors

  • The site had not been actively marketed for month and we were busy creating other sites so we didn't add much content to the site for months. We were busy building out other high growth potential properties.

  • Right around when we moved the site I believe the traffic volume for that keyword universe dropped (people out of school are not looking for scholarships or grants as much, and people use the Internet less in early summer).
  • Before the site moved we had ads on the blog portion of the site. We removed those ads because we want our blog to be a more organic part of the web than it would otherwise be if it were cluttered with ads. Our page-view traffic stats below are for pages that had ads on them. The blog currently represents a small minority of our traffic, but we hope to change that ASAP.
  • MSN search sucks at 301 redirects!!!!!

Traffic Trends

The site was moved on the 29th of May, and you can see how the traffic was at its all time high in May (the red is the old site and the blue is the new site). In addition to a nice third party trend graph, here are some traffic numbers by date

Date Page impressions
Thursday, March 1, 2007 8,082
Friday, March 2, 2007 5,853
Saturday, March 3, 2007 4,321
Sunday, March 4, 2007 5,424
Monday, March 5, 2007 8,244
Tuesday, March 6, 2007 7,844
Wednesday, March 7, 2007 8,061
Thursday, March 8, 2007 7,594
Friday, March 9, 2007 6,387
Saturday, March 10, 2007 4,579
Sunday, March 11, 2007 4,936
Monday, March 12, 2007 7,877
Tuesday, March 13, 2007 7,898
Wednesday, March 14, 2007 7,739
Thursday, March 15, 2007 7,707
Friday, March 16, 2007 6,344
Saturday, March 17, 2007 5,090
Sunday, March 18, 2007 6,112
Monday, March 19, 2007 9,259
Tuesday, March 20, 2007 9,359
Wednesday, March 21, 2007 8,708
Thursday, March 22, 2007 8,924
Friday, March 23, 2007 7,102
Saturday, March 24, 2007 5,304
Sunday, March 25, 2007 5,169
Monday, March 26, 2007 9,061
Tuesday, March 27, 2007 8,955
Wednesday, March 28, 2007 9,068
Thursday, March 29, 2007 8,565
Friday, March 30, 2007 6,770
Saturday, March 31, 2007 4,760
Sunday, April 1, 2007 5,360
Monday, April 2, 2007 8,483
Tuesday, April 3, 2007 8,671
Wednesday, April 4, 2007 8,552
Thursday, April 5, 2007 7,882
Friday, April 6, 2007 6,390
Saturday, April 7, 2007 5,052
Sunday, April 8, 2007 5,100
Monday, April 9, 2007 9,579
Tuesday, April 10, 2007 9,863
Wednesday, April 11, 2007 9,768
Thursday, April 12, 2007 9,180
Friday, April 13, 2007 7,734
Saturday, April 14, 2007 5,874
Sunday, April 15, 2007 6,533
Monday, April 16, 2007 15,370
Tuesday, April 17, 2007 11,534
Wednesday, April 18, 2007 10,605
Thursday, April 19, 2007 9,895
Friday, April 20, 2007 7,375
Saturday, April 21, 2007 5,201
Sunday, April 22, 2007 5,597
Monday, April 23, 2007 9,955
Tuesday, April 24, 2007 10,064
Wednesday, April 25, 2007 10,461
Thursday, April 26, 2007 9,942
Friday, April 27, 2007 7,689
Saturday, April 28, 2007 5,129
Sunday, April 29, 2007 6,097
Monday, April 30, 2007 10,442
Tuesday, May 1, 2007 11,262
Wednesday, May 2, 2007 10,005
Thursday, May 3, 2007 9,262
Friday, May 4, 2007 7,486
Saturday, May 5, 2007 4,627
Sunday, May 6, 2007 5,744
Monday, May 7, 2007 9,642
Tuesday, May 8, 2007 9,968
Wednesday, May 9, 2007 9,686
Thursday, May 10, 2007 8,865
Friday, May 11, 2007 7,248
Saturday, May 12, 2007 4,858
Sunday, May 13, 2007 5,407
Monday, May 14, 2007 10,878
Tuesday, May 15, 2007 10,478
Wednesday, May 16, 2007 9,974
Thursday, May 17, 2007 9,568
Friday, May 18, 2007 7,724
Saturday, May 19, 2007 5,015
Sunday, May 20, 2007 5,579
Monday, May 21, 2007 10,053
Tuesday, May 22, 2007 10,725
Wednesday, May 23, 2007 10,085
Thursday, May 24, 2007 8,650
Friday, May 25, 2007 7,383
Saturday, May 26, 2007 4,997
Sunday, May 27, 2007 5,328
Monday, May 28, 2007 6,113
Tuesday, May 29, 2007 9,977
Wednesday, May 30, 2007 10,039
Thursday, May 31, 2007 9,650
Friday, June 1, 2007 7,424
Saturday, June 2, 2007 5,111
Sunday, June 3, 2007 6,016
Monday, June 4, 2007 8,876
Tuesday, June 5, 2007 7,378
Wednesday, June 6, 2007 6,599
Thursday, June 7, 2007 5,354
Friday, June 8, 2007 4,019
Saturday, June 9, 2007 2,809
Sunday, June 10, 2007 2,953
Monday, June 11, 2007 4,550
Tuesday, June 12, 2007 4,124
Wednesday, June 13, 2007 3,903
Thursday, June 14, 2007 3,824
Friday, June 15, 2007 3,231
Saturday, June 16, 2007 2,158
Sunday, June 17, 2007 2,459
Monday, June 18, 2007 4,441
Tuesday, June 19, 2007 5,154
Wednesday, June 20, 2007 4,978
Thursday, June 21, 2007 4,468
Friday, June 22, 2007 4,057
Saturday, June 23, 2007 3,086
Sunday, June 24, 2007 3,675
Monday, June 25, 2007 5,853
Tuesday, June 26, 2007 5,666
Wednesday, June 27, 2007 5,684
Thursday, June 28, 2007 5,214
Friday, June 29, 2007 4,032
Saturday, June 30, 2007 2,852
Sunday, July 1, 2007 3,501
Monday, July 2, 2007 5,461
Tuesday, July 3, 2007 4,925
Wednesday, July 4, 2007 3,402
Thursday, July 5, 2007 6,016
Friday, July 6, 2007 4,769
Saturday, July 7, 2007 3,351
Sunday, July 8, 2007 4,022
Monday, July 9, 2007 6,780
Tuesday, July 10, 2007 7,047
Wednesday, July 11, 2007 90
Totals 916,061
Averages 6,887

How Google Reacted to the Redirects

Google picked up on the 301 redirects for the core pages almost immediately. For core terms, that were heavily emphasized on-site and off-site, the rankings dropped slightly then rose back to their typical positions within about a month. Some of them dropped for as little as a week, while others stayed at #1, but for athletic scholarships the rankings are still a bit lower than they were before, with 4 sites still outranking the site, but then again I doubt we should have beat the NCAA for that term. ;)

At the low point, search traffic was about 50% of its high point, and now it is back up to about 70%.

For some portions of the site, Google took quite a while to pick up the 301 redirect. The sections of the site about state scholarship and grants programs, state student loans, and study abroad scholarship programs were slow to move because they each contained many pages, and were numerous few links from the homepage, requiring a bot to go from the homepage, to a category page, to the subcategory page, to each of the 50 or so pages in each of those sections. To help speed along that movement links to some of the deeper sections were added to the homepage.

Helping Deeper Content Get Re-indexed Quickly

We got about a half dozen average quality links after the site moved and changed the URLs in a few of our directory listings like Business.com to help show the transition of the site. The exact match domain name helped improve rankings for the core matching term, and changing the site architecture to place more emphasis on the deeper pages not only got them crawled again quickly, but also helped those pages rank better as well.

In addition to placing more emphasis on lower nodes in the site structure we also blocked some of the duplicate blog content in the robots.txt file and lowered the number of site-wide outbound links from about a half dozen to a couple. These helped focus more of the PageRank on lower pages to get them indexed quicker.

How Did the Engines Do?

Yahoo! Search

1 month later Yahoo traffic is about the same as what it was before the site moved, which likely represents a slight increase in traffic, given the seasonal trend.

Google

Google traffic is down slightly, but I think that is partly due to seasonality factors, as the site ranks where it used to for most of its competitive search terms.

Microsoft's Live Search

The big shocker is that MSN is so bad at following 301 redirects that they now send the site 0 traffic. The old site is listed URL only, while the new site is not listed.

MSN's failure to follow redirects can also be appreciated by seeing how they indexed 10,000 more pages on the SEO Book site than Yahoo! or Google do. Most of those additional pages are affiliate redirects. As of writing this, MSN also failed to index SearchEngineHistory.com.

I filed a re-inclusion request with MSN about a week and a half ago, but have got no reply so far. If it is still hosed near the end of this month I will ping a few people I know who work there.

What Should I Do Before & While Moving My Site?

  • If you have a seasonal site you can mitigate risk by moving your site early in the off season.

  • Buy ads for any brand related queries or other keywords that you feel your site must rank for.
  • Look for low information pages, and eliminate their ability to waste PageRank by blocking them from being indexed.
  • Take inventory of your most profitable sections of your site (from a search standpoint) and ensure your current internal link structure places emphasis on them. If you have a large site and some of your most profitable sections of your site are many clicks from your homepage consider raising their prominence in the site's navigational scheme to help them get re-indexed quickly. Heavily cross link toward the valuable sections whenever and wherever it makes sense.
  • If you are afraid of risking your rankings, you can try 301 redirecting one piece of your site to see how well the engines receive that, then push the rest of your site a month later if the results are good.
  • If your new site launch is a big deal ensure you submit a press release, and come up with a few good marketing / promotional ideas you can do when you launch your new site to help you build link authority and make the transition as smooth as possible. Also changing some of your better directory listings, your internal links, and any other links under your direct control to point at the new location is ideal.
  • I like to buy a bit of StumbleUpon traffic and ads on topical traffic source sites when the site moves.

Local Data is Worthless (Unless You Have a Community)

Backfence died because it was made obsolete by Google's relevancy algorithms and older local community sites. The commoditization of local data is only going to get worse. iBegin Source allows you to search or browse local business information for free, or buy an entire state for $1,000. Today Google announced they are allowing people to overlay mapplets, which will likely make Google the default source for local information inside of 2 years.

How Do I Write About & Market Important News When Legal Has to Review All Our Content?

Question: We have a multi-week turnaround on our content which makes it hard for us to write about fresh news. Is there an easy way to get past compliance, legal, and information only formatting requirements?

Answer: This is in no way legal advice, but here are a few ideas that might work...

If you have this limitation so do most of your competitors, so in that regard it probably does not hurt you much when competing with other large players. If your business model is solid you should still have a similar or higher visitor value. Where it might hurt is competing with smaller players, but since they are smaller they are typically easier to influence.

You can still attract the traffic streams of the smaller players by using affiliate programs, hiring them as consultants, buying ads on their site, sponsoring special reports they create, creating things they would want to talk about (free tools, widgets, etc.).

I am not sure of the legalities of it, but you may also want to turn some of your star content producers into people you are buying ads off of, or spin the content portion of your business off into its own business then work to cross promote, or publish a few independent blogs with legal disclaimers. Look to see what competitors are doing, and if it is legal try to do it better than they do.

Create and sponsor an independent non-profit organization that speaks for your industry. At least one of the non-profit organizations in the search marketing space is a complete joke, but it still helps its leaders gain brand recognition because they are affiliated with it. I bet more than one car donation charity was created by an auction house.

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