Google's Move Away From Direct Marketing to Selling Branded Ads

Ad Relevancy & Quality Scores

Google has again and again touted the value of their targeted marketing, but most of the fortune 500 ad dollars are not spent on targeted marketing. A couple weeks ago in a WebmasterWorld thread many advertisers complained about getting killed by another quality score update.

What quality score actually means probably comes down to one of two things

  • your site is a thin affiliate site or something else they once needed to fill a market niche but now is viewed as noise

  • you have not created enough organic value and/or have not yet spent enough money building your brand

Google Hates Most Affiliate Websites

Some key quotes from the WMW thread...these two show the trend against affiliate sites in general

Too many outgoing affiliate links and you are toasted

So on my basic two types of sites, when I send the visitor to another domain to buy, I'm getting severly penalized ( a new affiliate "penalty"), but if I have a another party's lead form on my domain, I didn't get hit.

and this one shows that the change is not a short term one

A Google Adwords customer service rep said that they do not systematically target affiliates as a whole, nor sites with affiliate links. But, she said they are taking more steps with each landing page tweak to weed out sites that do not add a certain level of "value" to their visitors (as other posters to this thread have mentioned). She wouldn't tell me if this "value" is human-determined or algo-determined, again saying that she didn't know.

If your site is not the type of site they would white-list in the organic results eventually they are going to look to dispose of your position in the ads as well. As soon as enough brand advertisers find your space you are no longer needed. Thanks for sharing the keyword data needed to tell the brands what to bid on, and best of luck getting traffic from somewhere else.

If you want to see where paid search quality filtering is headed, look at how the organic algorithms have changed. Nothing better to glimpse the future of PPC than to read the documents about how they expect humans to rate organic search results.

Expanding the Role of Brand Related Advertisements

In that same WMW thread Skibum posed the following question

Why attack long time advertisers regardless of their business model who are providing consumers with what they are looking for while using broad match to show more ads triggered by keywords they were not intended to run on?

I recently saw a Dollar rent a car ad at the #1 ad position for Forex, which is not a cheap keyword.

Google Expanded Broad Match Going too Far.

As the day passed Google's CTR numbers showed they expanded that ad out too far and they made that ad less broad. They can automate spreading out brand ads too far, and then pull them back if the relevancy scores are too poor.

When it comes down to it, it is all about money. As Google commoditizes everything that is not a brand they need to collect more money from brands. The reason Google is pushing video hard is because they want to lead that ad market. It is no suprise to see Google leading in innovation in the video ad field. There is no better way to create inventory than to get it from your already established near infinite traffic stream.

The Cadillac Escalade video ads are taking the place of the textual Ford Explorer ads. Google has no brand allegence. Whoever is willing to overpay for exposure right now can buy all they want from Google.

Even when Google can show relevant ads, they still prefer to show brand ads if they think they will pay more. Consider a Michigan counties page where Google shows the following ad links.
Relevant Google AdLinks.
Those are relevant. But what ads does Google also target to that page?

Google Car Donation Ad.
A lot of car donation charities are non-profit shells wrapped around dirty high margin auction houses (just look at the $20/clicks ad pricing).

Google Drug Related AdSense Ad.
A pharmaceutical ad from a company with a patent an a marketing budget larger than their research budget.

"The most startling fact about 2002 is that the combined profits for the ten drug companies in the Fortune 500 ($35.9 billion) were more than the profits for all the other 490 businesses put together ($33.7 billion)." - Marcia Angell

Given that ad targeting, it doesn't seem that Google is so pure, does it? One of the guys at WMW said the following

You guys are AdWords arbitrageurs. Although I'm sorry that your little gravy grain went off the rails, as a Google user, I can say good riddance to your garbage Web sites. Google, and users, want actual retailers to come up top in search results for sellers of a product, not parasite Web sites linking to actual retailers.

In a few years that same guy will probably be whining about how Google destroyed his business, but just like the other websites that died, Google doesn't care about him. What they want is decent relevancy WITH as much profit as legally possible. The more they cut out middle men the bigger they can make their chunk, even if doing so hurts relevancy and result diversity.

How do they get any more efficient than automating ad targeting while turning the text link into an unmarked ad unit? And they have patents for ad targeting based on how big of a risk taker you are:

"Examples of information that could be useful, particularly in massive multiplayer online RPGs, may be the specific dialogue entered by the users while chatting or interacting with other players/characters within the game. For example, the dialogue could indicate that the player is aggressive, profane, polite, literate, illiterate, influenced by current culture or subculture, etc. Also decisions made by the players may provide more information such as whether the player is a risk taker, risk averse, aggressive, passive, intelligent, follower, leader, etc. This information may be used and analyzed in order to help select and deliver more relevant ads to users."

How can anyone else compete in the ad market?

Don't Trust Blog Comments From 24.208.220.xx

I generally get mostly positive feedback here, but sometimes I stir stuff a bit and get negative feedback. Over the last year nearly half of my negative feedback has came from the IP address 24.208.220.xx. The funny thing is, no positive comments come from that IP address, and nearly every comment they leave has a different name signed to it.

  • John was worried about me having a Trojan in some software. So worried, in fact, that he also left another comment on the same post under the name Matthew.

  • Mark claimed SEO for Firefox violated Firefox's trademark.
  • Robin claimed I was an idiot for saying that AdWords was less stable than SEO.
  • Stacy made the ignorant comment that search spamming is against the law.
  • Marty thought Elite Retreat looked way overpriced.
  • Steven called me a jackass.
  • Shawn stated he thought I was afraid the Internet was affecting my job security.
  • Big John claimed that I had wrote yet another whiny post.
  • Steve, Kyle, Talk Radio, Mary J, kind of funny, and Charles Tomey all thought SEO Elite was the best thing since sliced bread, which might explain why they so adamently hate Backlink Analyzer and SEO for Firefox.

If they thought they were so clever with all the rude comments, why were they too stupid to change their IP address when they wrote them?

If a lot of people are throwing hate your way make sure to check the IP address. In some cases it is just one person who really hates you. :)

Why John Conde, Stymiee at SitePoint Forums, is a Joke

Stymiee, a moderator at SitePoint, in a thread about learning SEO claimed:

Read forums and websites dedicated to discussing SEO. You'll learn more and won't get only one point of view which is usually a bad thing. Remember, those who can, do; those who can't, teach.

In the thread they dismiss the -950 Google ranking phenomena as a myth, when it clearly happens to many websites (likely due to filtering and local re-ranking of search results). Misguided group-think lead by an alpha male ogre is a bad thing.

The guy who claims teachers are bad has about 19,000 posts and carries around his SitePoint SEO Guru badge. In the same thread, he talks crap about my book, deletes my response, bans me from the forums, as he claims the forums provide more opinion diversity. Charles, the person who notified me of the hate thread, had the following to say

Have you ever run into him before? He is an unbelievable dickhead. I hate to sound unprofessional with someone I have never met, as it is not my style but, he roams the sitepoint forums spouting off at the mouth like he wrote every single SE algorithm. Not to mention how he does it in a belittling way to people who are truly ignorant through no fault of their own. I have no idea why sitepoint allows him to be a team leader. I have written them with links to posts he has made offending comments on so many times I can’t even count.

I am willing to bet that your post will be removed within hours. That is what happens every time I make a valid point against him.

Since my comments were deleted from SitePoint I will post them here for posterity:

Nice to see you delete my comments while running a hate thread about me... which shows how accurate and balanced this forum thread is.

[QUOTE=stymiee;3416219]Remember, those who can, do; those who can't, teach. ;)[/QUOTE]

And it only took him about 19,000 posts to figure out what group he belongs to. Congrats Mr. SEO Guru of 2006.

What a joke!

Is There an Internet Advertising Bubble?

It is easy to look at Google's stock price and think that it is overpriced, but marketing drives all markets, and there is a huge divide between how people consume media and marketing spend:

There is a growing divergence between how consumers spend their time and how advertisers allocate their marketing budgets. Last year, U.S. consumers spent nearly a third of their total media-consumption time engaged with online or interactive media, a dramatic increase from just two or three years ago. At the same time, Fortune 500 companies allocated only 6 percent of their marketing budgets to online media in 2006, up from 5 percent in 2005.

The web offers more precise targeting, a more interactive and engaging experience, bias toward wealthier consumers, and quicker feedback loops. That all trims waste.

As sales funnels get more efficient, and big advertisers move online, the ad markets will move past direct ROI measurements toward total lifetime value measurements and brand based metrics. If the web has 1/3 of consumer media consumption time before video was hot what percentage will it enjoy with the growth of video?

Search Relevancy & Keeping Promises

Paypal.com has been down for hours. I usually make a good number of sales, but today my site is on vacation. One way to lose a market leading position is to screw your partners out of millions of dollars of sales. Hopefully some of the people who were thinking of buying my ebook come back when I change processors or Paypal has a product worth using. One of my clients had some blank database pages ranking in the search results. Imagine what a searcher does if they land on one of these. Would they ever want to come back to that site again? Or did they lose all trust on the first click? If the page has no value and I lose trust on the first visit I would rather not get the ad impression than get the one impression and lose the visitor forever.

Another client had a button for their soon to be launched product on their site which said on sale now. The sales page said coming soon. When the product actually launches fewer people will click through to it because they will assume that it is still not available.

The best spot to sell is on our own sites, but we all do some form of anti-selling. No easier way to undermine profit potential than placing roadblocks that kill trust or conversion on our own sites.

Second Tier Search Engines & Clean Traffic Sources

WatchMojo recently posted about their experiences with GoClick:

Looking at Google Analytics, I saw that initially [GoClick's] traffic came from sources such as searchportal.information.com and landing.domainsponsor.com, but that progressively it included sites like myspace-junk.info. By the time you read this, myspace-junk.info is long gone into the annals of web history, which is fitting because these sites stink and the intermediaries that profit from them like GoClick - or their parent Marchex - are full of shit.

The problem when you leave the major ad networks is that monetization is so much less efficient that it is hard for them to have any legitimate CLEAN traffic partners other than media they own. Google bows down and caters to adult traffic sources. Why would any clean traffic sources be part of second tier networks if the top ad networks are willing to pay out nearly 100 percent?

As Spam Evolves...

Today my girlfriend checked her mail at the office and had an official notice / final notice piece of mail. She opened it up and inside it had a cheesy contest form. In the mailbox it is hard to tell the difference between information and spam. As the rules of the web change I think it will be even harder to know the difference between real websites and fake ones. AdSense Advisor said in a WebmasterWorld thread that

This decision was a long time in the making, and your thoughts and feedback are quite valuable to us.

Yet the policy change came without warning, and Google gave out no information as to what specifically changed. The one thing they did is cause many spammers to make their spam look more legitimate:

MFA2.0 is already underway. What seemed odd to me when I got banned was why they gave me until the end of the month - and not just cut me off in 48 hours. I could have stopped my Adwords campaign in under a few hours. Two weeks give you enough time to test out your new model get your ducks in a row and begin MFA2.0. The thing about lazy arbitragers is that they made money - enough money to hire people to do the hard work and still make dough. You can hire a freelance editor a good freelance content writer and a part time project manager for under 50K a year. If you can get back to making 50K a month clear it is worth while doing as you diversify your portfolio.

As the lines between real and spam blur it is going to be harder to have a stable income without adding extras to your website. So now I am going to start making my spam look more legitimate as well too, perhaps by doing the some or all of the following:

  • unique designs that look much more expensive than their price
  • author profile pages
  • better domain names
  • stock photography on many articles, and perhaps a few videos too
  • more socially oriented linkbait
  • more ad buys for anchor content articles
  • longer articles with more in content links
  • blogs, software / tools, or other community aspects

Every Rich Jerk Sells Snake Oil

Shoemoney pointed out that the Rick Jerk website is for sale, alleging that the sale is required to avoid bankruptcy. Was the Rich Jerk just a marketing scheme?

I have been seeing numerous others claiming the selling of snake oil recently. Dr Garcia flamed a whole slew of honest SEOs because we incorrectly refer to semantics as latent semantic stuff or call tools that show word co-occurrence as LSI like:

In an effort to save face and avoid litigation from consumers, some of these purveyors of falsehood as other crooks and their friends play with words and call theirs "LSI-like", "LSI-based", "LSI-driven" technology or use similar snaky phrases.

Odds are most of the people using words like LSI-like probably mistakenly referred to co-occurrence stuff as though it was LSI. To an SEO it really doesn't matter if search engines use LSI or something that acts similar...we only need to understand roughly what it takes to rank.

And I am fairly certain Dr Garcia was flamed in the past in SEO forums....I think it was in Cre8asite forums a few years back by an SEO who has been a big name since 1999.

Today Michael Arrington referred to domainers in a negative light

This is actually one of the cleaner scams occurring in the extremely dirty domain name business.

On that same post Frank Schilling dropped by to offer a comment

I agree with a few others here Michael. You make yourself look foolish when you unfairly and inequitably malign an entire industry because of the actions of some.

A few short years ago you made your living in the dirty domain industry. While I understand that your employment tenure in the industry may have shown some unsavory facets and your exit from the Canadian company you worked for may not have been to your satisfaction, calling the entire industry ‘dirty’ makes you no friends and garners you no respect by those trying to shape it in a positive way.

I look at all the worthless bags of smoke that you pump on this forum, all the investors you sell down the river in these Web 2.0 jokes. Who’s dirty Michael?

I do think much of the conflict between various web personalities is ego and envy driven, but I also think it is just a reflection of the business world as a whole.

Today a friend of mine explained that he thought it was dirty that in a game of basketball that if a ball goes out of bounds that both players will point at each other even if they know it was out on them. Business (offline or online) is the same way. Everyone spins for distribution and authority. Just look at how spammy and full of false promises many of the headlines are in some mainstream media outlets. How are we going to drum up support, gain a fan base, and further our industries if we are not evangelical about them? How can we steal marketshare from Google if we don't promise to know what people are thinking?

What makes the web seem so dirty at times?

  • It is unfiltered by corporate communications policies.

  • Language without body language is not as clear as some would like to believe.
  • Messages spread so quickly.
  • Everyone has a platform to spread their message.

Nobody knows what the web will become, but everyone is vying for attention hoping to stay relevant for another day. Some are better positioned than others, but everyone is selling.

Arbitrage & Macro-Trends

As an entrepreneur the biggest advantage you have over big businesses is that you can spot trends early and invest in them before they have a chance to tamper with the market. I got on the web in 2003 and launched this blog about SEO before the end of that year. That was great timing both for the SEO market and for seeing the blogging trend. While Google is killing a lot of the made for AdSense spam, the next big trend trend is probably going to be web video. But you have to act quickly to lock in large gains. Within days of Google integrating video into their search results, many of BuyDomains.com's video related domains were gone. Overnight the price of some of those domains probably increased 10x. Lots of people are investing in everything social...I think that trend is over-hyped and already on the decline. Nearly daily PR firms send me emails promoting social content stuff from people who clearly are writing about a topic they have no real knowledge of. By the time people who don't care about a market are drawn to it you know it is time to look elsewhere.

But as big business jumps into a wide variety of markets, you look at the information pollution created and realize that many people will be unable to tell the difference between information and what may as well amount to machine generated content.

Search is over-hyped too, but Google is making the search results more interactive in an attempt to re-accelerate that growth. They are evolving search with the web. The fact that they are pushing video means that it wouldn't be a bad idea to do so too. But you probably are not going to make much of a dent in the market as a YouTube or MetaCafe clone. There are a ton of markets where the top ranked organic results are of low quality and will soon be replaced. I think the next big trend on the web is remarkable micro-brands and high quality original editorial channels...video and text.

Beautiful Political Marketing

Andy Hagans made a great post about how the Ron Paul brand is being built online. Robert Greenwald recently launched another new film at ImpeachGonzales.org, where the headline could not be better:

President Bush won't fire Attorney General Alberto Gonzales... but YOU can! Most lead generation forms are probably less than 10% as effective as the Impeach Gonzalez site is. The introductory email was amazing as well, starting with

The Gonzales hearings made plain for all to see that the highest law enforcement officer in the land is unwilling to tell the truth under oath.

and ending with

Don't just be angry, don't just be annoyed, don't yell at the ones you love. IMPEACH GONZALES.

Let's get to work! Watch the video and send it to everyone you know.

Democracy is a beautiful thing.

A domain with resonance, a relevant story, content in small easy to digest chunks, background links, a prominent call to action, viral elements, strong framing, and emotional appeal... everything you could want in a political marketing campaign designed to spread.

Whether you agree with the messages, both are already successful marketing campaigns given their budget.

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