Google AdSense as a Terrible Business Model

I am still a fan of AdSense as a way of determining a baseline income potential for a site, but I don't see it as a long-term viable business model for most small publishers. Why?

Smart Pricing (or Maybe Dumb Publishing?)

I friend told me how much he made from AdSense a year ago, and in spite of increasing his network pageviews 200% since then his earnings this month are 10% lower than they were a year ago.

And Google still does a sloppy job policing their partner network. What happens if their editorial review costs increase. What does that do to the percent of ad income Google needs to keep to keep growing?

A Glut of Publishing:

It is getting easier and easier to publish online. The number of people writing is probably growing at a faster rate than the number (and income of) of people reading, which means you will have to be more compelling and put more effort into your content and marketing if you want to keep your pageviews up.

And Google has been placing more weight on authoritative domains, which is squeezing many small players out of ranking in the search results.

Newspaper & Magazine Archives: More Glut:

As business deals are worked out, and trusted archived content comes online, many business models based on AdSense spam will lose a large portion of their traffic to mainstream media companies that are not currently fully leveraging their archives.

If Google bought YouTube how long before they buy Olive Software or create a similar technology?

Frothy Ad Market:

I just saw a big, ugly, and obtrusive AOL ad on Amazon.com's home page. If people are buying general untargeted graphic ads on the largest retail site they must be overpaying for it.

A Lack of Competition:

Some of the executives of Yahoo!'s Publisher program recently announced they were quiting, and with Google's lead in the contextual ad space with virtually no competition, I have to take that as a bad sign for Yahoo!, and for independent publishers in general.

Google's General Arrogance:

Today many publishers noticed bright Google logos in their ad boxes inviting readers to sign up for AdSense.

Potential Text Ad Blindness:

People have learned to ignore banners and common ad locations. How long until people learn to ignore common AdSense formats, especially as the ads appear so prevalently on so many sites? What if people become more receptive to identifying ads (even in the content area)?

Not Worth It:

Add all those up and it gets a bit bleak looking to AdSense as anything more than a baseline estimate for effortless income or a backfill for unsold inventory.

What if instead of monetizing every page, niche publishers used most of their pages to keep attention and link equity flowing their way, and then just monetized targeted high value sections of their sites using well integrated affiliate offers and/or selling direct products?

Reciprocation vs Friendships & Passion

Brett Tabke closed down his Buddy Links program many years ago, stating the following:

You must ask yourself why sites would join BL in the first place? Because they couldn't get listed in the search engines. That left us at times "bottom" feeding.

Broad Based Reciprocal Links Don't Work:

In spite of Matt Cutts mentioning how reciprocal links were hurting people some of my friends were still making the mistake of being too reliant on link trades, creating obvious links pages. One of my friends hired someone who did nothing but link swaps, and, in the process, prevented my friend from ranking for anything in Google other than one 7 word phrase.

Why Some People Still Think They Do:

I recently posted about how some sites engaged in broad based reciprocal linking are killing themselves in Google. The comments on that post were entertaining. After listening to some guy who goes by the name DomainDrivers comment on and on about reciprocal linking being an effective promotional technique I came to realize the disconnect which prevented him from believing the truth

It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon his not understanding it. - Upton Sinclair

And then some people look at a portion of the market and want to believe that what is easy for them to replicate is the answer to their problems. Kirby made an excellent blog comment about why many people read the market wrong:

The debate on reciprocal links wont end for a few reasons.

First, the rules are not evenly applied. Older sites that have built up a degree of trust with aged links will get a way with more.

Secondly, it varies from industry to industry. With real estate, there exists a perception that since the space has lots of competitors, it is therefore competitive. Not true.

Do reciprocal links work in this space? Absolutely. The reason, however, is not because of the value of these links, but because its the primary tool of the majority of sites in this space. It tends to boil down to winning a race of mediocrity. Will they win in a truly competitive space? No.

Take a site and get a handful of good quality links with only a small percentage of reciprocal links and it will beat sites like domain drivers' clients hands down.

A Life of Finite Resources:

And the problem with reciprocation is not one associated with the web. The web is just a reflection of the real world, and the problems associated with reciprocation are that each of us have finite resources, finite attention, and a finite lifespan.

Your PageRank, your authority, your reach, ... they are all finite. Chop it up and trade it again, but eventually you are just going to create weird footprints.

Do Reciprocal Links Build Brands?

On that same thread a person who signed their name as being associated with Links Manager stated the following:

Reciprocal linking should be conducted as a BRANDING function.. never as an SEO function.

But you don't build a brand by trading links. You build a brand by promoting things you like and having people who like you promote you. It is much easier to do this if you allow others to fill in your holes where they are passionate.

How to Reciprocate:

Hugh recently mentioned a killer quote

I don't bother "networking" anymore, instead, I try to build relationships with people I find interesting, and who I think are doing interesting things. And I make it my mission to help them in any way I can to achieve their mission. I find this much more satisfying, much more honorable, and much more fun. And this is the cool thing about people....When you help them out in this way, they help you out. Not because it's a tit for tat deal, but because both parties are engaged in a mutually beneficial relationship that extends beyond the next favor.

Examples of Ways People Have Helped Me:

One person reformatted my ebook just because they liked it. Another friend recommended an editor that is currently editing it to make the grammar better. Another friend wrote my sales letter. Another friend helped me launch an ad network. Another friend offered to do multivariant testing. Another friend designed my site. Another friend gave me public speaking tips. Another friend became a business partner and sat next to me while I was giving a speech to department heads at a fortune 500 company. My most popular SEO tool (SEO for Firefox) was created by a friend who I knew before I got into the web.

Passion as a Proxy for Value:

If you are hanging around bottom hangers (reciprocal link trading hubs, for example) you are valuing your time at next to nothing and are surrounding yourself with bad ideas. Everything you see or do effects how you perceive the world and how you act. And how you act also determines what and who you attract into your life. If you are passionate then passionate people will enter your life.

You are only as good as the people you surround yourself with. You build a brand by creating friendships with honest people who are doing well, and try to help them do better. I talk to some friends like Andy Hagans, Caveman, and Werty all the time, and they always give me good ideas to help me improve my site and marketing.

When you are passionate about what you do you create value beyond your income. You accumulate friendships, assets, brand value, and market influence which are worth far more than most people realize.

I still trade links sometimes, or just link to friends knowing that they may link back, but most of my link swaps are only representative of friendships, and, to me, that seems the only way to make it worthwhile.

Optimizing Pages for Link Potential or Profit Potential

Each web page can be optimized for conversion or linkability, but few pages are well optimized for both. That is part of why search as a business model works so well. The signals of quality that search engines look for are typically associated with information, not pages that convert well, thus those who have overtly conversion oriented sites and pages have to buy advertising.
You can complain to top ranking sites and complain to Google about an informational site outranking you, but other than giving them a good laugh you stand little chance of getting much out of complaining about how the system is set up.

If you and a competitor both have the same optimized sales funnel, but have sites which do not have content that inspires linking then the odds are prett good a blog or newspaper article might outrank you.

Building Authority Without Hurting Your Conversion Potential:

A search engine is going to trust whoever has more signs of trust bolted on to their offering. If you have linkbait on your site it helps boost the overall authority of every page on your site.

When Linkbait Goes Astray:

Many SEOs fail at creating a site that converts well because we integrate our linkbait content (or other spurious information) directly into the sales funnel in a way that actually makes our sites less appealing and less conversion oriented.

You can still host linkbait on your site without actively driving the attention of your audience to it during the conversion process.

Use linkbait to get the links, but don't promote it heavily on your site unless it builds consumer trust and leads them toward conversion.

Keeping Conversions on Track:

A couple of my friends recently wrote an article about using Google Website Optimizer to streamline your sales funnels.

What is This Page for?

Each page should teach, convert, or be linkworthy. If you can do all that with one page that is awesome, but with most pages and most ideas you can't be optimally effective if you try to combine them all. For most businesses it helps to keep citation-worthy linkbait and the sales funnel separate.

Yahoo! Directory Registration & Search Engine Marketing

SEO Question: Is a Yahoo! Directory registration worth it? How do I know what directories are worthwhile? What directories should I submit to? Do you have any good site submission tips?

SEO Answer: If you have a business, and are serious about SEO, I generally would recommend submitting your site to the Yahoo! Directory. There are a lot of criteria to consider.

Your Site Name:

If your site name is MyKeywords.com make sure that your site lists your company as My Keywords. Do not run the words together in your logo, in your page title or text, or in the title of your directory submission when submitting your site to important directories. By separating the words in your site name you get better anchor text because the search engine sees the separate words in your links. Descriptive links from trusted editorial sources can be seen as a sign of quality.

If your keywords are not included in your site name, and it would be easy to alter your page title and logo, you may want to consider making some of your keywords as part of your logo design and official looking site name, so that you can get those words in your submission title.

If your keywords do not look like they are part of your official branded site name do not get too aggressive with keyword stuffing unless you are willing to risk a Yahoo! Directory editor editing your business name and potentially giving you less than ideal anchor text.

SERP Analysis:

When I buy quality links I am primarily buying them for either direct traffic or the effect they may have on my Google rankings. So the place to start analyzing category analysis is the search results.

Some sites will rank well based on being deceptive, creative, and spammy, but those rankings will quickly change over time, and those are not the ideal sites to pattern your link profile after. It is better to look at the top ranking related sites which you believe are credible sites that deserve the position.

For example, if you are a retailer of a product, but most of the higher quality top ranked sites in your category are manufacturers, it might make sense to dress up your site and write your directory listing description to make it look more like you are a manufacturer which also sells goods directly rather than just a retailer, that way you can submit your site to a category that lists you alongside.

The co-citation you are buying when you chose a category is a large part of the value of a directory listing.

Site Description:

Write your site description to help reinforce your category selection. Bias it toward making your site sound relevant for the category you want to be listed in. For example, if you want to be listed as a manufacturer and are submitting to a manufacturing category make sure your description says something like manufacturer of ...

Don't put too much hype in your site description. Look at other sites listed in your category to see how they are listed. The main goal of the description is to sell the category placement, and do differentiate your site from other sites listed in your category.

Directory Category Analysis:

There are a few main criteria when considering what directory category to submit your site to.

  1. the odds of you being rejected

  2. the co-citation value
  3. the global link authority of that category (ie: PageRank)
  4. the number of listings in your category

The odds of being rejected:
The odds of your site getting rejected from a paid directory for submitting to the wrong category are going to be quite low. For a free submissions or submissions to directories ran by editors, like DMOZ, getting the category selection correct is far more important than with a paid directory.

For a paid directory you probably want to submit to the best category which is reasonably relevant to your site. If they are too liberal with category placement the directory is probably of low quality and not trusted much, but even with high quality directories usually you can fudge it a bit. And, worst come to worst, they will typically list you in the category you belong listed in even if they do not give you the placement you desire most.

Co-citation value:
The co-citation you are buying is a large part of the value you are buying when you buy a directory listing. Consider the types of sites you want to be grouped with from the above SERP analysis section.

Yahoo! paginates the directory category listings pages by popularity, so if there are over 20 listings in your category and your site is new, you may want to spend the $50 to $300 a month it costs to sponsor your category, at least until your site's popularity increases and you are one of the top 20 results in your category.

Category link authority:
Some areas of a directory are over-represented within the overall directory structure, or may be well referenced by external resources. For example, Yahoo! lists the blogs category rather high in their overall category structure. Want another example of a directory category getting a bit of overexposure?

When Yahoo! created their own search engine, their official search engine guidelines linked to their SEO resources category. Hundreds of companies listed in the SEO services category, but there were only about a dozen listings in the SEO resources category.

Number of Links in Your Category:
If your category has less than 20 links then it is clear you will be listed next to the other listings. If your site is new and your category has more than 20 links then you may need to buy a category sponsorship to be featured at the top of the category to get the desirable co-citation.

Two other things to look at with the number of links in your category:

  • If you have a top sponsorship position in your category, or if you are bootstrapping it, and your brand is not that strong yet it may be cheaper to rank your category page than to rank your site off the start.

  • If your category has few links, or the other listings are not too relevant to your business, do not expect the Yahoo! Directory editors to want to list your site there.

Submitting to Other Directories?

I still think this post from April about web directories and SEO is a good primer for considering the quality of various directories, and how search engines may evaluate them.

A couple things I would add to that post:

  • Aged sites and/or sites with clean link profiles which are well trusted in Google are given a bit more leniency on what links may count and how many bad links they can get away with. If you have an aged trusted site you may want to dig a bit deeper for links, but for newer or untrusted sites you are best off just getting links from some of the higher quality directories.

  • If you are applying to become an editor at DMOZ, or other volunteer ran directories, make sure you start with a small category and sell topical passion more than you sell your commercial interests in the topic.
  • If you submit to a directory which allows multiple deep links with your listing, like Business.com, make sure you consider what pages will earn the most. For example, I have a 600+ page site where about 20% of the earnings come from one page. Getting your top earning pages a few more links can significantly increase their earning potential, but also note that if your deep idea is an uncompetitive niche there might be other links that you can get that will not leave such an obvious roadmap for competitors.
  • If your brand or core keywords could commonly be misspelled, like Client Side SEM vs Clientside SEM, you may want to submit your site to a couple average to lower quality directories with misspelled anchor text.

Free Elite Retreat Pass

We are holding a contest offering a free ticket to attend Elite Retreat. To enter for a chance to win free registration to the Elite Retreat, those eligible can reply via email to giveaway@eliteretreat.info with their contact information (name, email address, phone number, and mailing address), and their answer to the following question:

"Why should a legitimate business need to worry about SEO?"

Please note that if you win you still have to pay for your airfare and hotel.

Want High Quality Editorial Links?

Editorial links are...well, editorial links. Rand recently posted about how all the major search engines were in agreement that they would count links as votes from blog reviews bought through sites like ReviewMe:

Tim [Converse] answered first and said that Yahoo! wouldn't try to pick one post out of twenty or fifty on every blog that might be running advertorials or paid reviews just to stop link value from that particular post. If the engine looked at the site and saw that in general, the outgoing links were of high quality, there would be no discount of link value for paid blog material. Adam from Google agreed, but said little in particular. Vivek from Ask was quick to note that if the link were off-topic, Ask would be likely not to give that link much weight, but I pointed out that most advertisers would buy links from highly relevant blogs, not just for the search engine value, but because they wanted the qualified, relevant traffic from click-throughs as well as branding. Eytan from MSN agreed but didn't expand and when Tim Converse from Yahoo! jumped back in to say that it really wasn't worth an engine's time to going picking out paid links with that granularity, all the other panelists were vigorously head-nodding and verbally agreeing.

And when you think about it, some of the major search engines run automated ad networks and teach publishers to blend ads into the content. Is a blended ad more valuable to readers than an honest editorial review? Doubtful. And even Google tells you to submit your site to the Yahoo! Directory. Is a Yahoo! Directory editor going to do as much of an in depth review of a site as a blogger writing a whole page about it? Doubtful.

A blog which offers honest reviews isn't selling its authority / linkability / credibility any more than a blog which blends ads does. And if the editorial reviews are honest, I think they can be viewed as interactive ads...a type of advertising which adds value to the ads in more ways than you can count (conversation, buzz, branding, and feedback off the top of my head). And, to me, having one ad every few dozen posts looks much nicer than having ads front and center above the content on every page does.

And the review system is self correcting as well. If bloggers make bogus reviews they sell their credibility wholesale, and will lose readers and get flamed in their comments. If they make honest reviews then that is just another source of unique content.

Top Ranking in Google But Nowhere on Yahoo!

SEO Question: I rank #3 in Google for one of my core keywords and yet I am nowhere in it for Yahoo!. Why?

SEO Answer: Just because Google is viewed as the hardest search engine to manipulate, that does not mean that if you rank there you will also rank elsewhere. Each search engine has their own relevancy algorithm which determines how results are ordered. Over time those relevancy algorithms for each engine change, and they are never going to be the exact same at different engines.

I looked at the query and site in question, and in this instance, there was lots of link spam ranking competing sites high on Yahoo!. Those sites had 3 to 10 times as many links, and apparently Yahoo! likes garbage links a bit more than Google does, at least in this instance, at least right now.

Since many of those spammy sites were dominating Yahoo!, that meant that their rankings suppressed many garbage sites. Abhilash recently made a great post on this topic. Outside of having a ton of link equity or a killer brand, ranking across all the major search engines for certain keywords (especially in competitive areas) might be mutually exclusive.

Web 2.0 Publishing

addicted to attention
he kept writing
long after he had anything meaningful to say
posts equal profit

and the worst thing you could do is react
the words are devoid of meaning or truth
not for profit, but he needed to lie
to get sustainable exposure

he grew into his toys
and neeeded new ones
he deserved them
for all his hard work

mindless drones vote on headlines
marketers get links and money
what does it mean to be professional
do the ends justify the means

Hear Me On Good Karma Today

I am going to be chatting with Greg Niland today on Good Karma about SEO and other fun stuff at 4PM Eastern.

Please tune in, and if you have something you would like to hear us discuss, mention it below and I will see if we can chat about it.

How Google Could Commoditize (Nearly) Everything

Is Google just a large ad broker with a search service they can target ads against? Or how might they commoditize many markets? The current trend at Google is that software and storage want to be free. As technology gets cheaper so will Internet access and other forms of communication. Google offers free VoIP and ties it into Gmail, they mentioned making cell phones free via mobile ads, iPods holding all the world's TV in 12 years, and are offering media companies packets of cash to keep it on the web.

Google's main point of profit at the moment is ad sales, which is both highly inefficient and a fraction of what they could do.

Google Checkout:

Google leveraged search as a wedge against which they can sell targeted ads. Right now they are leveraging those ads to try to become a big online payment processor, by including Google Checkout buttons and $10 off coupons in the ads.

They think they can make payment processing faster and more efficient. Ads which have less slippage have greater value. But I seriously doubt that Google would want to stop at just making their ad network more efficient. Why would they?

Google has already launched a coupon program to tie together online and offline marketing, but what if they also attacked the online and offline divide via payment processing? The reason they started online is because that is where they already have leverage. Google talked about not competing with Paypal, but they offered a free month of service to try out Google Checkout for the holidays, and have already extended that holiday promotion another year.

Going Offline:

After they get enough lock-in, don't be surprised if they create a way to track offline transactions.

Most people in the US (and probably around the world) are in debt. Imagine if Google offered a coupon card or credit card. How many people would be willing to use a Google credit card if they offered the lowest interest rates or had other ways they could add value?

How Could Google Add Value?
After a period of charging an initial low interest rate (say 0%) Google could add value by providing health related precautions, related product recommendations, price comparisons, and reviews.

Health Information:
When Google created their Co-op they got many health authorities to participate. What if at the consumer level I could also input data, or I could sign into it when I signed my medical paperwork?

Related Product Recommendations:
Some of Amazon.com's recommendations are spot on. Imagine if Amazon had all their current customer purchase information, recent customer transactions, and were able to add your search history and add media consumption history to that.

Your purchase history, media consumption history, and search history paint a vivid personality profile which must be easy to target ads and product recommendations to.

Price Comparisons:
What if cell phones had product scanners on them? Read John Battelle's the transparent (shopping) society.

Reviews:
Google

  • already offers a web comments plugin

  • structures data via Google Base, Google co-op, inline suggestions, and Google OneBox
  • pulls reviews from other sites for vertical search sites like Google local and Google movies, and
  • could probably just gather reviews directly if they wanted to.

Lock In:
If Google gets enough vendors to lock in they will also have the most complete database of where to find things, which will only grow with time due to network effects.

RFID & Inventory Management:

In the video Epic 2014 they sell the case of a Google Amazon tie up, but I think Google will prevent themselves from carrying physical goods (as noted in August 2009: How Google beat Amazon and Ebay to the Semantic Web.), because they do not need to have them to influence the markets, and actually having physical goods may limit their ability to collect market data.

Before locking in consumers with all those features they will try to get many merchants to commit as well. Imagine if Google offered virtually free RFID tracking and inventory management software which helped automate restocking. And, imagine how well they could recommend competing suppliers and offer ads which looked like discounts.

A True Market Maker:

Google could influence what information we are able to find, what ads we see, what publishers are paid for creating content, and grab a cut from any and every point in the supply chain, charging whatever rates they felt comfortable charging. If they could gain that much information they could even use it to trade commodities and derivatives. Who better to trade commodities than the business which is able to turn so many things into commodities?

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